- Iran Situation Analysis
Advice to US Government
February 1, 2007
United States of America is in a Deadlock situation in Middle East!
US Administration does not know what to do and where to look for
help! There are bad advice everywhere (That is why US is in the
present situation) but where is the good constructive advice? There
is an indecision and chaos in White House and congress. The US Government's
Dilemma is that US is reluctant to invade Iran. Now let's analyze
that US is reluctant to invade Iran
has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan
US is involved
up to her neck in Iraq and Afghanistan. Both Iraqi and Afghani situations
are becoming a step short of a nightmare! President Bush may be
an optimist and/or in denial but specifically the Iraqi situation
is more like a quicksand and US is sinking quickly by the day! US
Government is in a stalemate! US Government does not have a way
forward or backward! If US stays in Iraq, there will be more casualties
and more disasters. There is no sign of the Iraqi Government being
able to control the situation in near future! On the other hand,
if US pulls out, then there will be a major disaster in Iraq! As
soon as US pulls out,
Al Qaeda and Ba'thists will seize the central Iraq (Sunni area).
And of course there is a large possibility that in the next step
of the scenario, Al Qaeda and Ba'thists will fight amongst themselves
for control of the central Iraq.
Kurds will right away form an independent Kurdish Republic. They
have been autonomous for many years now, so the only thing missing
is to officially announce their independence.
As soon as US pulls out, Iran will swallow Southern Iraq (Shiite
Region). Iran and her proxies such as Al Sadr and his Mahdi Army
will take control of Basra and the whole area of South Iraq including
the oil fields.
So US is in
a Lose Lose Situation and does not know what to do! On the other
hand Taliban in Afghanistan is making a comeback! This adds another
disaster for US to face! So US has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.
is no Iraq or Afghanistan!
Iran is not
a backwarded Middle Eastern nation like Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran
is pretty much an Industrial Nation. Iran has been dealing with
US and somewhat UN Sanctions for 28 + years! That is why Iran has
developed herself to become self-sufficient. At the present, Iran
is pretty much self-sufficient. Only a number of fools in Iranian
Opposition in Exile assume that if US and EU carry out a naval blockade
on Iran in Persian Gulf, then the Islamic Republic of Iran will
collapse in a few months!
produces everything from aluminum cans, glass bottles, can goods,
soda pops, preserved foods, potato chips and snacks, dried goods,
fruits and vegetables, meats and breads, and practically all types
of food products.
produces only 16 different models of automobiles, vans, trucks,
microbuses and other vehicles.
produces military goods from jeeps, trucks, carriers and other vehicles,
all the way to short range and long range missiles (Shahab and other
has an Aerospace Industry with a great number of Aerospace Engineers
and Computer Scientists working for it. IRI is in the process of
producing jet fighters and other planes!
is about to go nuclear!
Republic of Iran's Military Capabilities
Republic of Iran's Nuclear Capabilities
The only people
who assume that Islamic Republic of Iran is some Hill Billy, Rag
Head, Backwarded Boon Town nation, are:
number of Ignorant and uninformed Western public.
number of uninformed and miscalculating Western Politicians.
number of uninformed Western Media and Journalists.
And of course,
Great number of Exiled and out of touch Iranian Opposition Leaders
and Feeders, totally ignorant to realities of today's Iran.
Reza Pahlavi II
groups, a good example would be a kitchen chef named Reza Pahlavi
in dreams of CIA granting him his crown and throne to become the
next Shah of Iran! This man is such a sad and uninformed politician
(if you can even identify him as a one) that he still assumes that
Islamic Republic of Iran is similar to South Africa during Mandela
and United States during Dr. Martin Luther King or India during
Gandhi! Reza Pahlavi is an unskilled, uneducated and unqualified
person who assumes that he can play the role of Nelson Mandela,
Dr. King or Gandhi to overthrow one of the most ruthless and blood
thirsty regimes in history of the world next to Nazi Germany, named
Islamic Republic of Iran!
assumes that him and his youth Discotheque Monarchists can overthrow
IRI with civil disobedience, sit-ins and workouts or peaceful rallies!
This man who never worked a day in his comfortable life, wants to
overthrow the central heart of the global Islamist Terrorism and
millions of Hardcore fanatical Hezbollah militants and soldiers
who will die to support this regime! Even then, Reza Pahlavi does
not want to raise a finger in this struggle, yet he awaits the student
movement to do the regime change and then grant him his crown and
Followers of Reza Pahlavi II
we have about a million out of touch Iranians in exile (outside
Iran) and another million in inxile (inside Iran) named Monarchists
who fully or partially follow this joker named Reza Pahlavi!
Doper Diaper Baby Monarchists
We have a group of Exiled born teenagers and youth in their 20s
living in Europe and America, under the impression that 70 million
Iranians inside are ready to roll for a referendum and appoint Reza
Pahlavi as the new Shah of Iran!
Teenagers inside Iran
Fed up with the Status Quo, seeing no other choice, dreaming about
a prince on white horse to come to their rescue, not knowing that
this prince (Reza Pahlavi) had sold the prosperity of Iran for the
comfort of his belly and underbelly, 28 years ago!
dying and retired Ex Imperial Military and Administration inside
These Monarchists, while retired and sipping Chai (Tea) with Zulbia
and Bamia (Persian Sweets), they still scream between 3 (Constitutionalists)
to 5 (Absolutists) times a day "Javid Shah" (Long Live
Shah) right before they release undigested gas from overeating Persian
Pastries in their old age!
dying Ex Imperial Military and Statesmen in Exile
These are a group of Old bags, still reminiscing about the good
old times and dreaming to over throw IRI with their Rag Tag Wanna
be Paramilitary units including house wives, carpet gallery owners
and Cab Drivers!
Amongst all of these Monarchists, there are a slim group of activists,
particularly youth who are truly doing something useful for the
opposition. This group is highly critical of Reza Pahlavi and having
doubts about his leadership (if you can call it that)! This group
takes more and more distance from Reza Pahlavi by the day!
So, aside the
above groups which live in LaLa Land, no sane, logical and thinking
mind believes that Islamic Republic of Iran can be overthrown the
same as smashing a mosquito with a fly swatter!
is Central Heartbeat of Global Islamist Terrorism
of Iran funds, trains and supports most major Islamist Terrorist
Groups in the globe including but not limited to:
Terrorist Organizations Supported by IRI
Al Hamas of Palestine
Al Jihad of Palestine
PLO of Palestine
Jihad al Islami'a of Egypt
Tajikistan Fundamentalist Muslim
if US invades Iran, every single one of these groups plus Iranian
Islamists will fight back.
Internal Forces of Islamic Republic of Iran
Forces Units of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)
IRGC - Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Sepah Pasdaran)
Hezbollah of Iran (Ansar-e Hezbollah)
Over 40,000 Iranian Suicide Bomber volunteers
We are not even
counting the regular armed forces (Army, Navy and Airforce)! IRGC
(Pasdaran) are a special military force similar to Nazi SS Units.
They are above the laws of Islamic Republic of Iran. They have immunity
to the law. They are the elite forces who practically control Iran.
After the last so-called election, IRGC practically took the lead
and control of Iran and appointed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as their spokes-person
and president of Iran! Read:
Elections or Revolutionary Guards' Coup?
IRGC is a military
unit independent of the regular Iranian Armed Forces.
If US invades
Iran, every single one of these Iranian Forces and their Terrorist
Proxies around the world will start a war with US. If you think
what is going on in Iraq or Israel is bad, then picture this:
Every hour there
will be suicide-bombings, explosions and hit and run attacks on
American Forces inside Iran.
Every day there
will be suicide-bombings, explosions and sabotage operations in
American Living Complexes, Embassies, Military Headquarters and
bases outside Iran in Middle East and around the world.
there will be suicide bombings, explosions and sabotage operations
in American mainland!
there will be possibility of some form of Chemical, Biological and
nuclear infection or explosion in America mainland. Ex: polluting
water reservoirs of large cities.
The first places
which will be targets are going to be New York, Washington DC, Los
Angeles and San Diego which is a major military port. Then there
will be Chicago, Philadelphia and San Antonio.
Right in San
Diego, there are,
Corps Base of Camp Pendleton Oceanside
Marine Corps Air Station
Naval Base of Coronado
Navy Region of South West County
Air Station of North Island
Space and Naval Warfare
Systems Center of San Diego
Take a look
at so many San Diego Military Bases:
Diego Military Bases - Global Security
Diego Military Bases - Lewis Team
San Diego is the sixth largest and most populated city in America,
yet it will be amongst the first wave of attack by Islamists, simply
because San Diego is a major military and aerospace port.
So as you see,
if US invades Iran, the Iranian Campaign will make the Iraqi campaign
look like Sunday school! The Iranian Campaign will be hell to pay
for American troops inside Iran and then American Citizens and military
Bases outside Iran and in mainland America.
So, the question is can US afford to invade Iran?
A: The answer is No.
next question is can US afford not to invade Iran and allow Iran
to become a nuclear power?
A: The answer is No.
how is the Geo-Political Situation?
A: Deadlock and Stalemate
what should US do?
A: Unfortunately there is no quick solution and happy ending
to this problem!
US and the West
must be very wise because this outcome is not so fictional and it
of The Western Civilization by Islam
After all you
are growing snakes in your midst and living room:
Front Businesses in America
It is a lose
lose situation. Anyway you look at it! US is damned if invade and
damned if not to invade! But one thing is for sure, any substantial
change to Iranian current political environment or regime change
in Iran which will be forced by US, must be backed and supported
by Iranian people or else it will fail!
Iran is the
only nation in Near East and Middle East (except Israel) whose people
are pro America and hate their own regime. No other nation in the
region is as pro-American as is Iran! Iranians just love America
and American Culture. Don't look at these Hezbollah demonstrations
and protests in Iran shown on TVs. Iran has a population of 70 million,
of which less than 20% are anti-American (Hezbollah and extremists),
while over 80% are pro-American and pro-Western. Iran is not an
Arab nation and not even an Islamic nation in nature! The past 28
years of Islamic Regime could not change the psyche of the Iranian
US bombs Iran, not that Iranian people will not back US but they
will align with IRI and Mullahs!
US has a dilemma
and is in a deadlock! As we say in Persian, US Government is like
a Donkey who is stuck in the mud and quicksand! The donkey cannot
move forward or back, cannot pullout of Iraq or stay! Cannot afford
to invade Iran and definitely cannot afford to not invade Iran!
I surely do not want to be a part of Bush Administration or even
the upcoming future administration of 2008! There are deadly and
severe decisions to be made!
US - Iran Relations: Hot in Soccer
R. US - Iran Relations: Cold in Politics
Government and Iranian Opposition
One thing we
can be sure of is that United States Government must strongly support
the Iranian Opposition. By Iranian Opposition, I do not mean these
useless superficial and irrelevant groups in exile, including Reza
Pahlavi, mainstream Iranian Media and political organizations who
have been residing in Exile as professional "Career Exilists"
for about 3 decades! Supporting Iranian Opposition means to support
"All" relevant Iranian Resistance Forces inside and outside
Iran, including effective and nationalistic media, which can contribute
to mass education and moral and cultural revolution of the young
Moral Revolution is our salvation?
After all, any
substantial "Change" must come from inside Iran opposition
with the backing of the outside relevant opposition.
to US Government
My advice to
the US Government is to pull out the rotten teeth and weeds, and
stop funding these 1001 Iranian Prince Charmings in Exile! Stop
funding all these 1001 Iranian useless Media including TVs, Radios,
Ragpapers, Ragazines and Websites!
The CIA must
have copious money to burn, since it is currently granting millions
of dollars to fat-bellied, career-exiled, Iranian opposition weeds.
It would be more prudent to cut such current funding, perform a
thorough research on the Iranian resistance movement, and forward
such funds to the legitimate opposition. In the meanwhile and until
you identify the real resistance, please forward these millions
to AIDS research so people can have peace of mind. This money wold
be better spent in AIDS Research than be granted to a bunch of Hypocrite
Con Artists with Gigantic Size Egos residing in exile, absolutely
out of touch with masse of Iran and their needs.
and support the Real Iranian Resistance, which has backing and bases
inside Iranian Student Movement and inside Iran. Capture the Iranian
people's hearts and you will help free Iran. Connect yourselves
with these useless "Career Exilist" Double Chinned, Fat
Belly Iranian jokers in cheap suits and your Iranian foreign policy
will fail miserably as it did for the past 28 + years! What US Government
needs is wise advice from Real Iranian Resistance Forces for a change!
to All Iranian Freedom Fighters
A Lover of Iran