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US - Iran Situation Analysis
Advice to US Government
US - Iran Situation Analysis
Advice to US Government

Ahreeman X
February 1, 2007


United States of America is in a Deadlock situation in Middle East! US Administration does not know what to do and where to look for help! There are bad advice everywhere (That is why US is in the present situation) but where is the good constructive advice? There is an indecision and chaos in White House and congress. The US Government's Dilemma is that US is reluctant to invade Iran. Now let's analyze why?

Reasons that US is reluctant to invade Iran

I. US has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan

US is involved up to her neck in Iraq and Afghanistan. Both Iraqi and Afghani situations are becoming a step short of a nightmare! President Bush may be an optimist and/or in denial but specifically the Iraqi situation is more like a quicksand and US is sinking quickly by the day! US Government is in a stalemate! US Government does not have a way forward or backward! If US stays in Iraq, there will be more casualties and more disasters. There is no sign of the Iraqi Government being able to control the situation in near future! On the other hand, if US pulls out, then there will be a major disaster in Iraq! As soon as US pulls out,

Central Iraq (Sunni Region)
Al Qaeda and Ba'thists will seize the central Iraq (Sunni area). And of course there is a large possibility that in the next step of the scenario, Al Qaeda and Ba'thists will fight amongst themselves for control of the central Iraq.

North Iraq (Kurdish Region)
Kurds will right away form an independent Kurdish Republic. They have been autonomous for many years now, so the only thing missing is to officially announce their independence.

South Iraq (Shiite Region)
As soon as US pulls out, Iran will swallow Southern Iraq (Shiite Region). Iran and her proxies such as Al Sadr and his Mahdi Army will take control of Basra and the whole area of South Iraq including the oil fields.

So US is in a Lose Lose Situation and does not know what to do! On the other hand Taliban in Afghanistan is making a comeback! This adds another disaster for US to face! So US has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.

II. Iran is no Iraq or Afghanistan!

Iran is not a backwarded Middle Eastern nation like Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is pretty much an Industrial Nation. Iran has been dealing with US and somewhat UN Sanctions for 28 + years! That is why Iran has developed herself to become self-sufficient. At the present, Iran is pretty much self-sufficient. Only a number of fools in Iranian Opposition in Exile assume that if US and EU carry out a naval blockade on Iran in Persian Gulf, then the Islamic Republic of Iran will collapse in a few months!

Today's Iran produces everything from aluminum cans, glass bottles, can goods, soda pops, preserved foods, potato chips and snacks, dried goods, fruits and vegetables, meats and breads, and practically all types of food products.

Today's Iran produces only 16 different models of automobiles, vans, trucks, microbuses and other vehicles.

Today's Iran produces military goods from jeeps, trucks, carriers and other vehicles, all the way to short range and long range missiles (Shahab and other types).

Today's Iran has an Aerospace Industry with a great number of Aerospace Engineers and Computer Scientists working for it. IRI is in the process of producing jet fighters and other planes!

Today's Iran is about to go nuclear!

Read:

Islamic Republic of Iran's Military Capabilities

and

Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Capabilities

The only people who assume that Islamic Republic of Iran is some Hill Billy, Rag Head, Backwarded Boon Town nation, are:

a. Great number of Ignorant and uninformed Western public.

b. Great number of uninformed and miscalculating Western Politicians.

c. Great number of uninformed Western Media and Journalists.

And of course,

d. A Great number of Exiled and out of touch Iranian Opposition Leaders and Feeders, totally ignorant to realities of today's Iran.


Reza Pahlavi II

Amongst these groups, a good example would be a kitchen chef named Reza Pahlavi in dreams of CIA granting him his crown and throne to become the next Shah of Iran! This man is such a sad and uninformed politician (if you can even identify him as a one) that he still assumes that Islamic Republic of Iran is similar to South Africa during Mandela and United States during Dr. Martin Luther King or India during Gandhi! Reza Pahlavi is an unskilled, uneducated and unqualified person who assumes that he can play the role of Nelson Mandela, Dr. King or Gandhi to overthrow one of the most ruthless and blood thirsty regimes in history of the world next to Nazi Germany, named Islamic Republic of Iran!

Reza Pahalvi assumes that him and his youth Discotheque Monarchists can overthrow IRI with civil disobedience, sit-ins and workouts or peaceful rallies! This man who never worked a day in his comfortable life, wants to overthrow the central heart of the global Islamist Terrorism and millions of Hardcore fanatical Hezbollah militants and soldiers who will die to support this regime! Even then, Reza Pahlavi does not want to raise a finger in this struggle, yet he awaits the student movement to do the regime change and then grant him his crown and throne!


Followers of Reza Pahlavi II

At maximum, we have about a million out of touch Iranians in exile (outside Iran) and another million in inxile (inside Iran) named Monarchists who fully or partially follow this joker named Reza Pahlavi!

Discotheque Doper Diaper Baby Monarchists
We have a group of Exiled born teenagers and youth in their 20s living in Europe and America, under the impression that 70 million Iranians inside are ready to roll for a referendum and appoint Reza Pahlavi as the new Shah of Iran!

Disillusioned Teenagers inside Iran
Fed up with the Status Quo, seeing no other choice, dreaming about a prince on white horse to come to their rescue, not knowing that this prince (Reza Pahlavi) had sold the prosperity of Iran for the comfort of his belly and underbelly, 28 years ago!

Old Bones dying and retired Ex Imperial Military and Administration inside Iran
These Monarchists, while retired and sipping Chai (Tea) with Zulbia and Bamia (Persian Sweets), they still scream between 3 (Constitutionalists) to 5 (Absolutists) times a day "Javid Shah" (Long Live Shah) right before they release undigested gas from overeating Persian Pastries in their old age!

Old Bones dying Ex Imperial Military and Statesmen in Exile
These are a group of Old bags, still reminiscing about the good old times and dreaming to over throw IRI with their Rag Tag Wanna be Paramilitary units including house wives, carpet gallery owners and Cab Drivers!

Relevant Monarchists
Amongst all of these Monarchists, there are a slim group of activists, particularly youth who are truly doing something useful for the opposition. This group is highly critical of Reza Pahlavi and having doubts about his leadership (if you can call it that)! This group takes more and more distance from Reza Pahlavi by the day!

So, aside the above groups which live in LaLa Land, no sane, logical and thinking mind believes that Islamic Republic of Iran can be overthrown the same as smashing a mosquito with a fly swatter!

III. Iran is Central Heartbeat of Global Islamist Terrorism

Islamic Republic of Iran funds, trains and supports most major Islamist Terrorist Groups in the globe including but not limited to:


Terrorist Organizations Supported by IRI

Hezbollah of Lebanon
Al Hamas of Palestine
Al Jihad of Palestine
PLO of Palestine
Jihad al Islami'a of Egypt
Afghan Shiite
Tajikistan Fundamentalist Muslim
Bosnian Islamists
Sudanese Islamists
Etc.

Hypothetically if US invades Iran, every single one of these groups plus Iranian Islamists will fight back.


Internal Forces of Islamic Republic of Iran

Qods Special Forces Units of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)
IRGC - Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Sepah Pasdaran)
Basij Militia
Hezbollah of Iran (Ansar-e Hezbollah)
Over 40,000 Iranian Suicide Bomber volunteers

We are not even counting the regular armed forces (Army, Navy and Airforce)! IRGC (Pasdaran) are a special military force similar to Nazi SS Units. They are above the laws of Islamic Republic of Iran. They have immunity to the law. They are the elite forces who practically control Iran. After the last so-called election, IRGC practically took the lead and control of Iran and appointed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as their spokes-person and president of Iran! Read:

Iranian Elections or Revolutionary Guards' Coup?

IRGC is a military unit independent of the regular Iranian Armed Forces.

If US invades Iran, every single one of these Iranian Forces and their Terrorist Proxies around the world will start a war with US. If you think what is going on in Iraq or Israel is bad, then picture this:

War Scenario

Every hour there will be suicide-bombings, explosions and hit and run attacks on American Forces inside Iran.

Every day there will be suicide-bombings, explosions and sabotage operations in American Living Complexes, Embassies, Military Headquarters and bases outside Iran in Middle East and around the world.

Every month there will be suicide bombings, explosions and sabotage operations in American mainland!

Every month there will be possibility of some form of Chemical, Biological and nuclear infection or explosion in America mainland. Ex: polluting water reservoirs of large cities.

The first places which will be targets are going to be New York, Washington DC, Los Angeles and San Diego which is a major military port. Then there will be Chicago, Philadelphia and San Antonio.

Right in San Diego, there are,

Marines Corps Base of Camp Pendleton Oceanside

Marine Corps Air Station of Miramar

Naval Base of Coronado

Navy Region of South West County

Naval Air Station of North Island

Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center of San Diego

Take a look at so many San Diego Military Bases:

San Diego Military Bases - Global Security

San Diego Military Bases - Lewis Team

Even though San Diego is the sixth largest and most populated city in America, yet it will be amongst the first wave of attack by Islamists, simply because San Diego is a major military and aerospace port.

So as you see, if US invades Iran, the Iranian Campaign will make the Iraqi campaign look like Sunday school! The Iranian Campaign will be hell to pay for American troops inside Iran and then American Citizens and military Bases outside Iran and in mainland America.

Qs & As

Q: So, the question is can US afford to invade Iran?
A: The answer is No.
Q: The next question is can US afford not to invade Iran and allow Iran to become a nuclear power?
A: The answer is No.
Q: So how is the Geo-Political Situation?
A: Deadlock and Stalemate
Q: So what should US do?
A: Unfortunately there is no quick solution and happy ending to this problem!

US and the West must be very wise because this outcome is not so fictional and it could occur:

Fall of The Western Civilization by Islam

After all you are growing snakes in your midst and living room:

Hezbollah's Front Businesses in America

It is a lose lose situation. Anyway you look at it! US is damned if invade and damned if not to invade! But one thing is for sure, any substantial change to Iranian current political environment or regime change in Iran which will be forced by US, must be backed and supported by Iranian people or else it will fail!

Iran is the only nation in Near East and Middle East (except Israel) whose people are pro America and hate their own regime. No other nation in the region is as pro-American as is Iran! Iranians just love America and American Culture. Don't look at these Hezbollah demonstrations and protests in Iran shown on TVs. Iran has a population of 70 million, of which less than 20% are anti-American (Hezbollah and extremists), while over 80% are pro-American and pro-Western. Iran is not an Arab nation and not even an Islamic nation in nature! The past 28 years of Islamic Regime could not change the psyche of the Iranian people.

However, If US bombs Iran, not that Iranian people will not back US but they will align with IRI and Mullahs!

US has a dilemma and is in a deadlock! As we say in Persian, US Government is like a Donkey who is stuck in the mud and quicksand! The donkey cannot move forward or back, cannot pullout of Iraq or stay! Cannot afford to invade Iran and definitely cannot afford to not invade Iran! I surely do not want to be a part of Bush Administration or even the upcoming future administration of 2008! There are deadly and severe decisions to be made!


L. US - Iran Relations: Hot in Soccer
R. US - Iran Relations: Cold in Politics

US Government and Iranian Opposition

One thing we can be sure of is that United States Government must strongly support the Iranian Opposition. By Iranian Opposition, I do not mean these useless superficial and irrelevant groups in exile, including Reza Pahlavi, mainstream Iranian Media and political organizations who have been residing in Exile as professional "Career Exilists" for about 3 decades! Supporting Iranian Opposition means to support "All" relevant Iranian Resistance Forces inside and outside Iran, including effective and nationalistic media, which can contribute to mass education and moral and cultural revolution of the young Iranian minds.

Why Moral Revolution is our salvation?

After all, any substantial "Change" must come from inside Iran opposition with the backing of the outside relevant opposition.

Advice to US Government

My advice to the US Government is to pull out the rotten teeth and weeds, and stop funding these 1001 Iranian Prince Charmings in Exile! Stop funding all these 1001 Iranian useless Media including TVs, Radios, Ragpapers, Ragazines and Websites!

The CIA must have copious money to burn, since it is currently granting millions of dollars to fat-bellied, career-exiled, Iranian opposition weeds. It would be more prudent to cut such current funding, perform a thorough research on the Iranian resistance movement, and forward such funds to the legitimate opposition. In the meanwhile and until you identify the real resistance, please forward these millions to AIDS research so people can have peace of mind. This money wold be better spent in AIDS Research than be granted to a bunch of Hypocrite Con Artists with Gigantic Size Egos residing in exile, absolutely out of touch with masse of Iran and their needs.

Start funding and support the Real Iranian Resistance, which has backing and bases inside Iranian Student Movement and inside Iran. Capture the Iranian people's hearts and you will help free Iran. Connect yourselves with these useless "Career Exilist" Double Chinned, Fat Belly Iranian jokers in cheap suits and your Iranian foreign policy will fail miserably as it did for the past 28 + years! What US Government needs is wise advice from Real Iranian Resistance Forces for a change!

More power to All Iranian Freedom Fighters


A Lover of Iran

Dr. X

 
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