Azerbaijan as a sacrificial pawn in a big game

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Azerbaijan as a sacrificial pawn in a big game

Postby Ancyr » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:49 am

Turkey continues to promote the strategy of expanding its military, political, economic and cultural influence in countries that can conditionally be included in the so-called Great Turan project. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not limited to neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic rhetoric. He backs his words with very specific decisions, which last year resulted in military campaigns in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Nagorny Karabakh.

What are they up to in Ankara?
The Great Turan concept and the phantom of the neo-Ottoman Empire are determined mostly by the actions of Turks in the territories that were once either part of the Ottoman Empire or its sphere of influence. Syria and Iraq were both provinces of the same country, as well as the Caucasus part. The same is true for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, Libya and parts of the northeast African states. Where there is a weakness of state power, a sluggish conflict, Turks see an opportunity for influence or intervention in order to ensure participation in such a confrontation on favorable terms and convert their own military and political efforts into geopolitical and economic preferences.

As the war in Nagorny Karabakh showed, Ankara failed to become the Transcaucasian "arbiter", but it strengthened its authority in Azerbaijan and create preconditions for the deployment of its own military base in the country. We must not forget about other political and economic benefits of the land transport corridor from Turkey to Baku.
Ilham Aliyev today demonstrates loyalty to Erdogan out of gratitude for the unprecedented assistance in the war against Nagorny Karabakh. He is ready for anything. The Turks desperately need complete control over Azerbaijan. At least, Turkey fully invest in this war: without the help of Ankara and the jihadists, Baku would never have achieved success in that war.

Sunnis put pressure on Shiites
Speaking about the increasing Turkey influence in Azerbaijan, it should be noted that the direction of the Islamic faith is rapidly changing in Azerbaijan.

In recent years, many orientalists have noted the process of an active shift in the ratio between Sunnis and Shiites in Azerbaijan towards the latter. This process was called the "Sunnisization" of Azerbaijan. Both demographic and political reasons for this process are mentioned as an explanation.

The political factor plays an important role in the "Sunnisization" of Azerbaijan. The main reason is the desire of the country's leadership, starting with Heydar Aliyev and ending with his son Ilham Aliyev, to get closer to Turkey. The main factor in this rapprochement is the common language - Turkish and Azerbaijani are related languages, some even consider Azerbaijani to be a dialect of Turkish. On this basis, the theory of "one people - two states" arose in Azerbaijan, according to which Turks and Azerbaijanis are a single nation.

The leadership of Azerbaijan took a "pro-Sunni" position and headed for "soft squeezing" of the Shiite majority. Today, two-thirds of Azerbaijani Muslims are Shiites and a third are Sunnis. Moreover, the more secular Turkish Sunnism is tacitly considered at the official level to be more suitable for the inhabitants of Azerbaijan. And therefore, it enjoys the clear support of the state authorities. The increasing influence of Ankara in Azerbaijan leads to the oppression of the Shiite population.

More and more young Azerbaijanis practice the Sunnism. Sunnism is often seen by Azerbaijani youth as a more faithful and just original Islam, and Shiism is seen as a kind of wrong Iranian sect.

The Shiites in Azerbaijan lack an authoritative theological hierarchy. There is no local so-called "Marja taqlid" (an authoritative Islamic scholar), to be followed by Shiite Muslims in matters of religious observance.
Secular Azerbaijan cannot find a common language with the Islamic Republic of Iran for a long time, where Shiism is the state religion and ideology. By the early 2000s, the activities of Iranian missionaries in Azerbaijan were practically banned.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is cooperating with the Turkish Ministry of Religious Affairs, which has been empowered to promote Turkish Islam in foreign countries. Turkey has funded the building of eight mosques, teaches clergy and provides scholarships to study at its Islamic secondary schools and universities.

Are Azerbaijanis in Iran - Separatists?

It should be also noted that there are, according to various estimates, from 9 to 28 million Azerbaijanis in Iran. Mullahs consider them to be ethnic Iranians speaking the Turkic language. The shahs of the Pehlavi dynasty believed in the same way. Azerbaijanis localize in the north-west of Iran.
Political forces in the format of "soft" separatism, mainly of a cultural nature, operate legally and illegally in Iranian Azerbaijan. The base of "hard" separatism is minimal. Iranian Azerbaijanis are integrated into the political elite of Iran. They are the most loyal (to the central government) of its ethnic group (after the Persians, of course).

So far, Iran has managed to prevent the emergence on its territory of such separatist movements that would pose a significant threat to the integrity of the Iranian state and the preservation of the current political regime. However, the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other ideological and geopolitical rivals of Iran hope that they will be able to split the Iranian state, primarily by supporting separatist movements.

Among the peoples of Iran, potentially capable of separatism and have repeatedly declared their desire for autonomy, and even for the achievement of complete political independence, one can list the Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs of Khuzestan. These people have the clearest identity, their own rich history, and most importantly, they all have fellow tribesmen in other states, with whom they expect to unite.

After Iran turned into one of the main opponents of American and British influence in the Middle East, Turkey began to harp on the Azerbaijani subject, trying to play on the Azerbaijani-Persian contradictions.

Of course, the Azerbaijani national movement is of certain interest to the United States as well, since any activity aimed at weakening the integrity of the Iranian state is welcomed by the American leadership.

The national liberation theme is artificially promoted by small groups of committed politicians, mainly living in exile in the West and working for American and European interests. On the territory of Iran proper, Azerbaijanis are periodically arrested for separatist propaganda, but a significant part of them are not so much even residents of the Azerbaijani provinces of Iran, as are immigrants from sovereign Azerbaijan.

Several analysts are convinced of the exaggeration of the real desire of Iranian Azerbaijanis for self-determination.
Ancyr
 

Re: Azerbaijan as a sacrificial pawn in a big game

Postby IPC » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:18 am

Hello Ancyr

Welcome to the club and thank you for insightful analysis of the Azerbaijan situation and the effect of the surrounding nations on its politics, also the geopolitical powers of the region’s policies. According to your profile, you are Iranian (Persian), your language is Farsi (Persian) and you are from Tehran. We have many Azeri readers from Azerbaijan country, some professors, teachers and academics who believe they are Iranian and they only speak Turkic due to imperialism and occupation by the Ottomans for many decades. Even though they believe they are Iranian but they never speak of it publicly because they are afraid of retaliation by the Azerbaijan’s government.

The questions for you are:

1. Are you Azeri, if so, do you consider yourself Iranian or Turk?

2. Do you believe in Federalism for the future Iran, meaning internal autonomy for Azeris for their internal affairs but obedient to Tehran for central government’s policies in regards to politics, security, defense, foreign affairs and international trades?

3. Do you believe Turkic (Azeri) should be taught in schools as the 2nd language or foreign language in province of Azerbaijan?

4. Do you believe dividing internal Azerbaijan to 3 provinces of Eastern, Western and Ardabil by the IRI is a political scam to avoid Azeris to unite, get strong and claim separation?

5. Do you believe in the future; Azerbaijan should be united as one province of Iran?

6. Considering, Azeris are a strong base of the IRI regime and even Supreme Leader and many elite Mullahs are Azeri, are Azeris in need of more secularization to become less hardcore Shiite Islamic ideologs?

7. Do you believe in the future secular, democratic, federal republic of Iran, all past provinces of the Persian Empire must unite and form a union under one Iran and under one flag and country (including Azerbaijan)?

PS:
Good analysis but on your paragraph structure and titles, some spaces between your titles and paragraphs were eliminated and flawed, we did not fix them in case you wanted them like that.

So, we read your analysis, now we seek your own opinion on the matters?

Good to hear from you

Ba Sepas
Good Thoughts, Good Words, Good Deeds (English)
Pendare Nik, Goftare Nik, Kerdare Nik (Modern Persian)
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